NBA Finals Preview - LA Lakers vs. Boston
Basketball Betting Lines
05/31/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If Yogi Berra were talking NBA Finals, the baseball legend
might be tempted to break out his famous "It's deja vu all over again" line.
The league's two marquee franchises, the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers, will fight over the Lawrence O'Brien Trophy for a record 12th time
when the finals kick off in Hollywood on Thursday.
When you talk rivalries, the Lakers-Celtics is right up there with Yankees-
Red Sox and Ohio State-Michigan as the best in all of sports. Their finals
history dates all the way back to the 1958-59 season when the Lakers nickname
actually made some sense and they still called Minneapolis home.
Boston and the game's ultimate winner, Bill Russell, dominated the early years
of the rivalry. In fact it was as lopsided as Pete Carroll's USC Trojans vs.
Charlie Weis' Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Red Auerbach's Celtics took the
Lakers all seven times they met in the finals, although the Jerry West, Elgin
Baylor fueled LA clubs did manage to take Boston to seven games on three
different occasions.
The rivalry laid dormant for 15 years until Larry Bird and Magic Johnson
"saved" the NBA by bringing their storied college rivalry to the pros. Bird
avenged his loss at Indiana State to Magic's Michigan State Spartans in the
1979 NCAA Finals when the Celtics got past the Lakers in seven games to win
the 1983-84 NBA title.
Johnson and his Lakers responded the next season as LA finally beat Boston in
the finals for the first time. Magic also won the rubber match two years later
before the rivalry went cold again, this time for 20 years as the Celtics
struggled mightily in the post-Bird era.
Boston basketball chief Danny Ainge re-ignited things by acquiring both Kevin
Garnett and Ray Allen before the 2007-08 season. The two All-Stars teamed with
Paul Pierce to create the "Boston Three Party" and the Celtics were relevant
again. A 17th Boston championship was the result as Garnett and his Celtics
got the best of Kobe Bryant's Lakers.
A rematch could have been in the offing last season but a knee injury to
Garnett derailed any hopes of a Celtics repeat. Instead, LA earned its 15th
championship by taking Orlando in five games.
"Obviously, one is special but the other groups have a couple, and we'd love
to join that club," Celtics coach Doc Rivers said of the other Boston
dynasties. "It's not going to be easy for us. We've talked about that we
want to join that club. No one can ever take away the first title. But we
want to join another club too."
The Lakers secured a chance to repeat as champs and avenge their loss two
years ago on Saturday when Bryant poured in 37 points as Los Angeles gained
their third straight trip to the Finals by ousting Pacific Division rival
Phoenix in six games.
The Celtics, meanwhile, will be gunning for their record 18th title, and have
already knocked off LeBron James and Cleveland, which had the league's best
record, in the East semifinals, as well as Orlando, last season's Eastern
Conference champion.
Pierce totaled 31 points, 13 rebounds and five assists the day before the
Lakers clinched their trip to the finals as the Celtics made sure history was
not made in the East. The Magic had staved off elimination in back-to-back
games and had momentum on their side in trying to become the first NBA team to
come back from a 3-0 series deficit.
"This is where we thought we would be," Rivers said. "So we're not surprised."
The Lakers, who snapped a seven-game playoff skid in Phoenix during the West
finals clincher, are bidding to become the first repeat champion since they
won three in a row (2000-02) with Bryant teaming with Shaquille O'Neal.
"Last time we played [the Celtics], it was a great learning experience for
us," Bryant said. "It taught us what it takes to be a champion. With the
defensive intensity they play with, the tenacity they play with, we learned a
great deal in that series."
Lakers coach Phil Jackson, who surpassed the legendary Auerbach with his 10th
championship as a coach last year, an NBA and major North American
professional sports record, is glad he has a chance to avenge one of his two
losses in the finals.
"After we came back in the playoffs last year, I ran into Paul Pierce in a
complex where my daughter lives in LA," Jackson said. "I said, 'Get it back,
we want to meet you in the finals.' So here it is almost a year later. We have
this opportunity, both of us, to renew this rivalry."
MATCHUPS:
POINT GUARD: It seems like every playoff series the Lakers are in, we talk
about the advantage the opposition has at the point guard position. It's no
different here. Despite the lack of a top-tier, consistent jumper, the ultra-
quick Rajon Rondo has made a team that features three future Hall of Famers
into his own. The Kentucky product nearly averaged a triple-double in last
year's playoffs and is putting up special numbers again this year. Rondo is
scoring at 16.7 points per game clip and leads the Celtics in assists (10.0)
so far this postseason while contributing 5.3 rebounds.
His ability to get on the boards really shows up against most point guards and
his floor game and decision making improves on a daily basis. The book on
Rondo is simple, sag off him and make him take that suspect jumper but that's
easier said than done.
"I haven't really had a chance to look at him, aside from just mere
entertainment, watching games," Bryant said of Rondo. "He's really turned into
a helluva player."
His counterpart, veteran Derek Fisher, is the weak link of this Lakers team on
paper. Fisher lacks the quickness at this stage of his career to stick with
the upper echelon point guards and Jackson will likely have to use Bryant and
reserves like Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar early and often to try and slow
Rondo off the dribble. A standstill shooter these days, it's easy to poke
holes in Fisher's game but few players are willing to take more big shots down
the stretch of a close game. Fisher has ice running through his veins late and
turns from a detriment to a big-time positive as the clock ticks down.
EDGE: CELTICS
SHOOTING GUARD: Allen is one of the finest pure shooters to ever play the
game and since the veteran guard is a free agent in the offseason this might
be his last hurrah with a team of this caliber. He has been playing every game
like it's his last and is averaging 16.8 ppg in the playoffs and is shooting
an impressive 42.3 percent from long range. The sweet-stroking Allen still can
come off the screen like few others, has a lightning-quick trigger and is not
afraid to take the big shot. In fact, his marksmanship can take over a game
when he heats up. Although aging, Allen is also an underrated defender.
As good as Allen is, he's no match for the Lakers' Bryant. An elite playmaker
and finisher, Bryant again finished within the top five in scoring this
season and ended up third in the MVP voting despite being banged-up for much
of the year. In Kobe's 13 seasons with the Lakers they have appeared in
postseason play in all but one season (2004-05), and have reached the NBA
Finals seven times, winning championships in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2009. Bryant
is also the youngest player in NBA history to score 25,000 points and also
moved past the legendary Jerry West to become the Lakers all-time leading
scorer. Perhaps more importantly, he remains the best closer in the game and
is one of the two or three best defensive stoppers.
"The challenge is to win the championship," Bryant said. "The Celtics are in
the way. They feel the same way about us. It's a sexy matchup. We're looking
forward to this challenge. When the ball goes up, we'll be ready to go."
EDGE: LAKERS
CENTER: Kendrick Perkins is likely thrilled to have put Dwight Howard in the
rearview mirror. However, he will be facing another athletic big man in Andrew
Bynum during this series but the Lakers' big man is playing injured and is a
far less consistent player that often finds himself in Jackson's doghouse.
Perkins doesn't have elite quickness or athleticism but he is the Celtics'
best pure rebounder and is a solid shot blocker. Offensively, Perkins hasn't
developed enough of an offensive game and most of his points come on put-
backs.
Bynum, who missed the NBA Finals in 2008 with a knee injury, has a lot of
talent but another knee injury suffered against Oklahoma City in the West
quarterfinals has taken its toll. No one questions Bynum's skill but a
history of leg injuries and inconsistency is always lurking. That said,
Bynum is a better player than Perkins.
"Andrew is going to give us what he can," Jackson said. "He's not a hundred
percent. But he's throwing himself in there. He'll do the job. He'll do
what we ask him to do and be as tough as he can be out there with a limited
amount of base that he can work off of."
EDGE: LAKERS
SMALL FORWARD: Pierce is the Celtics' go-to-guy down the stretch of close
games and is one of the NBA's best. The 2008 NBA Finals MVP was once again the
Celtics' leading scorer and is one of the game's best finishers and a very
underrated defender. The Truth's vaunted body control also enables him to
march to the foul line at will.
Ron Artest spent the first round of the playoffs chasing Kevin Durant all over
the floor and did a fine job so he won't exactly be spooked by Pierce's
scoring skills. No one can stop the supremely gifted Durant but Artest forced
him to work and that was the plan. With Durant gone, Artest was able to
contribute on the offensive end a little more vs. Utah and Phoenix but his
production with this Lakers team will always be measured on the defensive
end, especially against a player like Pierce, who was the difference in the
'08 finals.
"Pierce is a very tough matchup," Bryant said. "He's very smart. He's one of
the few players that has a long ball, has midrange game, can get to the
basket. I think that makes him tough to cover, but Ron is up for the
challenge."
EDGE: CELTICS
POWER FORWARD: Kevin Garnett is one of the best power forwards of all-time.
He's clearly on the downside of a spectacular career but "the Big Ticket" has
been incredibly efficient this postseason and clearly has enough left in his
bag of tricks to make things difficult for a player like Pau Gasol.
Gasol has been the perfect "Robin" to Bryant's "Batman" since the Lakers
acquired his services during the 2007-08 campaign. The lanky Spaniard is LA's
top rebounder and shot blocking threat and gives Jackson an imposing presence
on the front line.
EDGE: EVEN
BENCH: Rivers mixed and matched his bench all year but has settled on Big
Baby Davis and Tony Allen along with Rasheed Wallace and Michael Finley for
most of the postseason. Davis provides offense inside and some toughness while
Allen brings athleticism and a defensive mindset to help combat Bryant.
Wallace and Finley aren't going to be consistent at this stage of the game
but can step up and hurt you at key moments. Wallace's length will be
especially important against an LA front line that has carved up the Western
Conference.
The wild card may be Nate Robinson, who stepped up big in Game 6 against
Orlando and has the ability to offer instant offense off the bench at any
time.
"I made a point of going over to him (and telling him to) stay engaged,"
Rivers said of Robinson.
Lamar Odom is a very gifted player that can beat you in a host of ways for
LA. One of the NBA's best sixth men, Odom can take you from the inside or
outside on the offensive end and torture you with his length as a defender.
He's also the rare 6-foot-11 player that can handle the ball and beat you as a
playmaker.
Jackson tends to get frustrated with his other bench players. Brown is a
solid defender while Farmar offers some two-way skills in the backcourt.
Luke Walton can also provide some energy at times.
EDGE: EVEN
COACHING: Rivers has never been regarded as a great chess player but he has
done a wonderful job melding the egos of three superstars, and managing
personalities may be the most important job of an NBA coach. Rivers' lead
assistant, Tom Thibodeau, may be the best pure defensive coach in basketball.
That said, Jackson is one of the best professional coaches in the history of
the game. The "Zen Master" has won 10 titles as a head coach and helped the
Lakers become the first NBA franchise to 3,000 wins back in January. Jackson
is in his 10th season as head coach of the Lakers and has led the
franchise to seven Western Conference titles, and has the highest playoff
winning percentage of any coach in league history. He passed the
legendary Auerbach with his 10th title last summer, and his resume is beyond
reproach.
EDGE: LAKERS
PREDICTION: Things have changed since 2008. The Lakers added Artest and now
have a tough-minded defensive player to match up with Pierce. That also gives
Jackson the ability to slide Bryant, the best on-ball defender in the series,
on Rondo at times if the Celtics' point guard heats up against Fisher. On the
other hand, Boston, with Garnett, Perkins and Wallace, is one of the only
teams in the NBA that can counter LA's length on the front line. Both teams
have superlative finishers in Bryant and Pierce but both also have a host of
defenders that they can throw at each of them.
"This is a whole new situation," Jackson said. "We have some new members of
our team but some of these guys remember how it felt to lose. There's nothing
worse than losing in a finals.
"It will be a matchup of bigs. Their bigs are very active and they've got
Wallace and Davis coming in off the bench, along with other bodies they can
bring in. They're a big team. Our bigs have to play, have to play well. I
thought we were outplayed by their bigs the last time we played them in the
'08 series. Andrew [Bynum] will give us some help in that regard."
This is almost too close to call but Rivers summed it up after the Orlando
series when he reminded us that his current starting five has never lost a
playoff series.
CELTICS in 7.
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The 20-year-ol
FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
Football Betting
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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